"Here's a simplified guide to what's going on in the Ukraine: The people of the Ukraine staged an uprising against President Viktor Yanukovych, now he disappeared leaving the way for jailed opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko to come out of jail and stake her claim for the top job. Meanwhile, former boxer Vitali Klitschko announced he would run for President, and Yanukovych finally surfaced in Crimea. Even that's still confusing. Now lets put the whole thing in British terms. Imagine David Cameron was jailed for doing a dodgy gas deal and Ed Miliband became Prime Minister. Then in a few weeks time there was rioting in the streets because Miliband signed his own dodgy deal with France so he disappears in a helicopter, Cameron is released from jail and Miliband finally shows up in Aberystwyth . Then just as things couldn't get any weirder Frank Bruno throws his hat into the ring. That's basically what has gone on in the Ukraine!"
So where does Russia come into this? Yanukovych has close ties to Russia and was attempting to improve Ukraine's relationship with it at the expense of membership with the EU. Therefore, after being evicted from government, he issued a statement via Russian media insisting his right to the position. Meanwhile, Putin claims that he has a right to protect the interests of the Russian minority in Ukraine.
We have now seen "a slow-motion invasion on the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians and 'normalizing' the situation that western nations so recklessly fueled in Kiev" (Yuhas).
Ukraine has now mobilized its forces and Putin is sending more troops over; Crimea is now under complete Russian control. Yesterday, we witnessed Russia issue Ukraine with an ultimatum: surrender or face an assault.
So what has the West done? Obama has had a "90 minute" phone call with Putin warning that he has broken international law. All military cooperation between Russia and the US has been suspended and it appears that Russia is now in direct opposition with the US and the EU. Meanwhile, Cameron is planning sanctions against Russia to ensure it "pays significant costs for violating the territorial integrity of Ukraine, after Mosko assumed control of Crimea." Currently, both America and Britain are denying that military action is an option. However, that is something which is highly likely to change if Putin extends his forces further out of Crimea into Ukraine.
In 1994, both Britain and the US signed the Budapest Memorandum treaty which technically means that if Russia invades Ukraine, Britain and the US have no choice but to go to war. Moreover, Russia's actions over Crimea has been widely compared to the Nazi's actions concerning Austria which sparked World War 2. If therefore, Russia did invade Ukraine, it is not a stretch of the imagination to imagine large scale war erupting.
What would this war look like?
It is difficult to imagine whether or not World War 3 would look like World War 2 for example would there be another blitz? The biggest concern is that World War 3 would be a nuclear war which would leave casualties far and wide and for many years to come. I would like to believe that even given the eruption of World War 3, nuclear weapons would not be used. However, it is likely that were Russia or America to believe that they were drastically losing the war, they would resort to the use of their nuclear arsenals to finish it once and for all. Moreover, if the powers that be concluded that the use of a nuclear weapon would end the war fast and with less casualties than a drawn out bloody war, the temptation to use such weapons would certainly grow. This is a particularly terrifying thought as a nuclear war would, realistically, be the final war. Very few would survive.
However, we must remember that it was only a few months ago that WW3 over Syria appeared inevitable. Currently, Putin is insisting that military force against Ukraine will be a last resort and the West is very keen to use diplomatic means rather than force to resolve the situation. As it stands, there is every chance that the whole situation will blow over, as it has with Syria, and we can once again continue our peaceful, secure lives.
Unfortunately, the future of our security rests in the hands of a man like Putin.
Sources:
The Last Leg
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-26248275
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/ukraine-crisis-russia-crimea-commentary-analysis
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10672417/Ukraine-crisis-as-it-happened-US-puts-military-cooperation-with-Russia-on-hold.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/crimea-crisis-david-cameron-sanctions-russia-ukraine
No comments:
Post a Comment